Birrell and Rapson - People and Place Vol 6 No 4

A NOT SO PERFECT MATCH — THE GROWING MALE/FEMALE DIVIDE 1986-1996,
by Bob Birrell and Virginia Rapson

Select findings

Between 1986 and 1996 the proportions of women aged 20-39 who had ever-married and who were living in married or de facto couple relationships fell sharply, with the exception of women aged in their thirties who held degree level qualifications. (See Table 1.) For example, of women aged 25-29 years, 27 per cent had never married in 1986. By 1996 this proportion increased to 45 per cent. The fall in marriage rates was not compensated for by increases in de facto relationships. Seventy per cent of 30-34 year old women were in couple relationships (married and de facto) in 1996 compared with 77 per cent in 1986. There was, however, an increase in the proportion of women who were sole parents.
The corollary of the above is that men are less likely to be in partnered relationships. Only 62 per cent of men aged 30-34 years in 1996 were partnered compared with 70 per cent in 1986. The vast majority of these unpartnered men had never married. Thus, for men aged less than 40, the cause of declining partnering rates is more a product of failure to partner than marital breakup
For men aged 25-44 higher incomes increase the likelihood of their being in a partnership. Those in higher status occupations and higher incomes were more likely to be partnered than those in lower status occupations with a further gulf to the unemployed and those not in the labour force. (See Table 2.)

Table 1: Number of women aged 20-39 years, percentages not partnered and never married by level of qualification and age, 1986 and 1996
		1986			1996
Age	Qualification level	Total	% not partnered	% never married	Total	% not partnered	% never married
20-24	Bachelor or above	30,146	77	80	85,806	80	87
	Diploma	21,075	70	73	53,113	75	85
	Skilled vocational qualification	16,489	56	60	25,382	66	78
	Basic vocational qualification	81,738	62	65	36,835	70	82
	No post-school qualifications stated	479,075	60	62	454,882	72	81
	Total	628,523	61	64	656,018	73	82

25-29	Bachelor or above	52,047	44	44	121,269	51	57
	Diploma	35,903	34	32	59,115	44	48
	Skilled vocational qualification	14,393	28	22	30,923	38	40
	Basic vocational qualification	97,933	33	29	35,345	41	43
	No post-school qualifications stated	445,174	32	25	435,438	42	42
	Total	645,450	33	27	682,090	43	45

30-34	Bachelor or above	49,055	30	24	109,197	32	30
	Diploma	39,353	22	15	58,247	29	24
	Skilled vocational qualification	12,934	20	8	27,634	27	20
	Basic vocational qualification	85,794	23	14	37,405	28	21
	No post-school qualifications stated	428,913	23	11	470,727	30	21
	Total	616,049	23	12	703,210	30	23

35-39	Bachelor or above	37,063	27	15	111,503	27	19
	Diploma	35,445	19	9	66,900	24	13
	Skilled vocational qualification	14,254	17	4	22,677	24	11
	Basic vocational qualification	76,201	21	8	38,723	25	12
	No post-school qualifications stated	447,301	20	6	476,694	27	12
	Total	610,264	20	7	716,497	27	13

Data are for all women enumerated in each Census, including visitors and those not living in households. This may slightly inflate the percentage not partnered as the Census does not give information as to whether visitors have a partner at their place of usual residence. The 1996 Census used a different classification of qualifications from the 1986 Census. The changes are probably inconsequential for our analysis but the equivalence assumed is listed below.
1996	Bachelor or above	1986		Bachelor Degree or higher
	Diploma			Diploma
	Skilled vocational qualification*			Certificate - Trade level
	Basic vocational qualification			Certificate - Other level
	No post-school qualifications stated			No qualifications/unknown
	* 95% of skilled vocational qualifications are Trade Certificates.
Source: Centre for Population and Urban Research, customised matrices from Censuses, 1986, 1996

·Across all age groups, those on lower incomes were also more likely to be separated or divorced. Between 1986 and 1996 the proportion of those with no post-school qualifications who were separated and divorced increased by much more than the proportion of those with degree level qualifications.

·Economic changes occurring between 1986 and 1996 have resulted in a lower proportion of men being in full-time work. Even though partnering rates are falling overall, men who are not in full-time work are more likely to be unpartnered than other men.

·On the other hand there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of women employed in 1996 in comparison to 1986. This increased female workforce participation has given women more material resources at a time when many men are losing out. These two developments appear to be combining to accentuate the decline in partnering and marriage rates.

*Table 2: Proportions of all males who were in married or de facto relationships by age, occupation and labour-force status, 1996 (percentages)**
	Occupation of employed men
Age group	Managers & Administrators	Professionals	Associate Professionals	Tradespersons & Related Workers	Clerks, Sales & Service Workers	Production & Transport Workers	Agricultural & Horticultural Labourers	Other Labourers & Related Workers	Unemployed	Not in labour force or unpaid helper	Total **
25-29	57	45	53	55	45	54	47	46	33	27	45
30-34	77	69	73	73	65	69	63	61	49	44	64
35-39	84	78	80	78	73	74	68	68	57	51	72
40-44	86	81	83	80	76	77	70	72	60	55	75
45-49	86	82	84	82	78	79	73	75	62	60	76
Total 20-49	81	72	75	73	66	70	63	63	50	48	66
* Excludes visitors from within Australia
** Age group totals include males who did not state their labour-force status and those who were employed but did not state their occupation
Source: Centre for Population and Urban Research, customised matrix from 1996 Census

·The reasons for this can be related to the existence of two different marriage markets. While these two markets are, in practice, more part of a continuum than two separate markets, they can be conceptualised as an old style ‘breadwinner' market and a new style ‘collaborative' market. Women with their own resources through paid work are more likely to be in the collaborative end of the market whereas women on the fringe of, or not in, the labour market are more likely to be in the breadwinner end. However, even for women looking for ‘providers', their increased access to the labour market means they are under less pressure to accept a male who cannot provide a secure income. Unfortunately there were many more such males about in 1996 than in 1986.

·There is little evidence that any overall mismatch between the numbers of men and women available for partnering could explain the lower proportions of men who are partnered in 1996. However, the higher numbers of young women in their twenties with university qualifications compared with those of similar young men is likely to cause a mismatch if these women continue to limit their search to men of equal or higher educational standards.

·The study goes on to explore the social consequences of these changes. It examines the hypothesis that the recent growth in the number of sole parents is linked to the decline in partnership rates identified, as well as to marital breakdown. It explores the circumstances of these women and argues that their prime dependence on the Sole Parent Pension, with little contribution in maintenance payments from estranged fathers, is in turn linked to the marginal labour market situation of many of the men involved.

A Not So Perfect Match ($25) is available from the Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., 3168.

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