Volume 12, Issue 1 (2004)

BEYOND THREE SCORE YEARS AND TEN: PROSPECTS FOR LONGEVITY IN AUSTRALIA

Heather Booth is Senior Lecturer, Demography and Sociology Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University and Leonie Tickle is Associate Professor, Department of Actuarial Studies, Macquarie University. Most estimates and projections of life expectancy are based on period measures. This paper presents forecasts of cohort life expectancy for older generations derived using the Lee_Carter method of forecasting mortality. These cohort measures point to more years of life expectancy than the commonly_cited current period measures. The new forecasts also indicate a more rapid increase in future life expectancy than official projections assume. Policy_makers and those planning retirement should take into account that Australians are likely to live longer than currently envisaged

Authors: Heather Booth and Leonie Tickle

Filesize: 2100kb

Pages: 12

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